Hello Capitalists!
Get the edge on what you need to know today:
Capitalist Insider: Dell just added $25 billion to its year. AI servers did it
Trump opened Venezuela. Chevron just bet $7B that Venezuela oil is back
Trump’s DOJ just put Walmart and Costco in the beef-price fight
Together with Kalshi
Trump opened Venezuela, Chevron just bet $7B that Venezuela oil is back
Chevron will invest more than $7 billion over 5 years in Venezuela and aims to more than double joint-venture output to about 600,000 barrels a day, the largest concrete U.S. corporate bet yet beside Trump’s NABEP deal.
New acreage, better terms: Updated fiscal and legal terms add Orinoco Belt acreage at Petroindependencia and Petropiar, where Chevron holds 49% and 30% stakes after an April working-interest increase.
Costs stay under $20: Yahoo Finance reported total costs are expected to remain below $20 a barrel after output across the three joint ventures already rose 15% this year.
More firms sign Wednesday: The Wall Street Journal said other oil-and-gas companies are expected to sign Caracas production deals later Wednesday.
$100B NABEP hole remains: North American Blue Energy Partners must raise about $100 billion for fields holding some 65 billion barrels; a U.S. official said Washington is putting up “zero” taxpayer dollars.
With Trump and Delcy, Venezuela Prepares to Unleash The Silicon Valley of Crude
An op-ed from The Capitalist. Reporting from the Faja Petrolífera del Orinoco, Venezuela.
Odds surge on Tesla merging with SpaceX before 2028
The odds of Tesla merging with SpaceX before 2028 have surged according to the latest data from Kalshi.
Elon’s Mega Corp: Elon Musk, fresh off the back of the SpaceX IPO has been rumored to be debating the move.
A Pattern Emerging: Prior to the SpaceX IPO several of Musk’s ventures were brought in under the SpaceX umbrella. This included the satellite internet division Starlink and the xAI division which runs the AI model Grok.
Do you think Tesla will be acquired by SpaceX?
Get $25 in credit on Kalshi after you sign up using our code “brawl” or by using our link.
U.S. 10-year hits 4.814%, highest since November 2023
The U.S. 10-year yield peaked at 4.814% on Wednesday, the highest since November 2023, as Germany’s bund hit a 2011 high, Japan’s 10-year held above 3%, and U.K. gilts stayed at 5.25%.
Hikes priced on three shores: Markets expect the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan to raise rates this month, with September Fed hike odds around 67% as the dollar held near a 2-week high.
AI debt meets $40 trillion: Macquarie noted hyperscalers have issued about $220 billion this year, while U.S. federal debt has topped $40 trillion for the first time.
Social Security clock runs: The Peterson Foundation said the main Social Security trust fund is on track to deplete in 2032, triggering automatic 22% cuts if Congress does nothing.
Yields start hitting stocks: Barron’s said higher real yields are knocking down the AI-led S&P rally, tightening equity valuations as September’s seasonal window opens.
Iran tried to shut Hormuz, 17 million barrels still sailed
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC more than 17 million barrels moved through Hormuz on Monday, a wartime record on the U.S.-escorted Oman corridor, even as Iran claimed two tankers hit mines.
Wright says the card is slipping: Wright said Tehran is “losing that card” and that oil and gas will flow from the Gulf “with or without Iran,” speaking from Venezuela.
CENTCOM hits air defenses: U.S. forces struck Iranian air-defense, communications, and radar sites after attempted attacks on shipping and American service members; Jordan intercepted 10 of 13 missiles.
Diesel reprints wartime heat: AAA put the U.S. retail diesel average at $5.688 a gallon, the highest since April’s wartime peak, as Brent hovered near $94 after briefly tagging $97.
Bessent goes after the cash: Bessent said the U.S. will freeze IRGC trust accounts in the British Virgin Islands and $100 million properties, and cut dollar access for entities still doing business with the regime.
Trump’s Treasury chief just boxed China in at the G20
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China was the sole G20 holdout against a statement condemning “cheap exports” and non-market overcapacity, and also objected to language on Hormuz disruptions.
Chairman statement stands anyway: Bessent said China, holder of the world’s largest current-account surplus, dissented from his chairman’s statement on overcapacity, IMF surveillance, and G20 external debt.
Gulf oil is China’s problem too: Bessent said China gets 50% of its energy from the Gulf, agrees Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, and that it is “incumbent upon China” to help reopen Hormuz.
Xi keeps Pezeshkian off camera: Xi met Iran’s president for several minutes at the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan, but Chinese state media omitted the encounter weeks before a planned Trump-Xi meeting.
Optics without a blank check: Analysts said Beijing is keeping a private channel open while signaling dissatisfaction and refusing to look like it is siding with Tehran.
AI tokens just hit 97 cents, OpenAI’s pricing power cracked
Silicon Data’s LLM Token Expenditure Index fell to 97 cents on Monday, its lowest reading since launch late last year and more than 50% below the summer high, as cheaper Chinese models and lab price cuts landed.
Open-weight models set the floor: The drop was driven by lower-priced open-source Chinese models such as Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and by late-July OpenAI cuts on two GPT-5.6 models.
Labs eat the deflation: Syz Group’s Charles-Henry Monchau said foundation-model labs are most exposed because token deflation hits revenue while compute commitments stay fixed.
Moat moves to distribution: Monchau said the edge must shift from raw model capability, “where the open-weight gap is now measured in months,” toward distribution, memory, and context.
Most tasks still get done: Silicon Data research head Steve Hou said today’s cheaper tokens “provide sufficient capabilities for most tasks,” even as Gemini, Claude, and ChatGPT compete on price.
Tampa now has Waymo and Tesla robotaxis. The war is on
Waymo is starting paid driverless rides in Denver, San Diego, and Tampa, taking its fleet past 4,000 vehicles in 14 U.S. cities as Amazon-owned Zoox begins supervised testing in Houston and San Diego.
Half a million rides a week: Waymo already runs more than 500,000 U.S. robotaxi rides a week and aims to cross 1 million by the end of 2026, with dozens of cars in each new city growing to hundreds.
Ojai vans bring Gemini: Newer Ojai vehicles, built on a Zeekr minivan chassis in Arizona, add sliding doors, three cabin screens, sixth-generation driverless tech, and a Gemini entertainment system.
Zoox still trails paid scale: Zoox’s only paid service is Las Vegas; Houston and San Diego start this month with human supervisors, taking Zoox to 12 U.S. markets.
Tesla talks Thursday: Tesla plans to share more on its driverless Cybercab and Robotaxi service Thursday, while Goldman sees the U.S. robotaxi market rising from about $3 billion in 2026 to $19 billion in 2030.
Trump’s DOJ just put Walmart and Costco in the beef-price fight
The Justice Department expanded its beef-price antitrust investigation from the Big Four packers to 8 major grocers, including Kroger, Walmart, Costco, Amazon, Publix, Albertsons, Aldi, and Ahold Delhaize.
Packers still sit at 85%: The May probe of JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef remains open; those four control more than 85% of U.S. beef processing.
Three million documents already: DOJ said it is reviewing more than 3 million documents and called beef prices “a critical concern to Americans, and a priority for this Justice Department.”
Whistleblowers can take a cut: Attorney General Todd Blanche said tipsters who help secure a criminal penalty above $1 million can recover 15% to 30% of the money DOJ collects.
Herd is at a 1950s low: The U.S. had about 86.2 million head of cattle and calves as of Jan. 1, the lowest since the 1950s, as officials also weigh tariff-free imports of up to 300,000 metric tons.
Uber just cut 3,300 jobs to race Tesla and Waymo
Uber will cut 10% of its workforce, about 3,300 jobs on a year-end 2025 headcount of around 34,000, as CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the company must get “simpler and faster.”
Tiny teams get halved: Uber is cutting small one-to-two-report teams by nearly half and trimming employees seven steps from the CEO by 20%.
Hubs win, remote shrinks: More staff will concentrate in New York and San Francisco hubs, with only about 1% still allowed to work remotely.
Not framed as an AI purge: The company did not blame the cuts on artificial intelligence; Khosrowshahi said a leaner Uber means clearer ownership and more time building than coordinating.
Shares bid the news: Uber stock rose nearly 2% in morning trading after the announcement.
About time and when will we see US new refineries ??