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Leo @structural growth dossier's avatar

Nvidia’s bears are right about several things: financing risk has moved downstream, memory inflation will squeeze margins, custom silicon will take accelerator share, and another downcycle will come.

I think they are wrong about the conclusion. Third-party capital is still underwriting demand, customer ROIC remains unusually strong, and Nvidia can keep increasing its economic capture per GW even as accelerator share falls. The next downturn is more likely to begin in project returns than in channel inventory.

A $10 trillion Nvidia does not require 70% growth forever. It requires FY2028 not to be peak earnings—and the evidence today says it probably won’t be.

Read more: Nvidia ($NVDA) Deep Dive: Still On Track to Become the First $10 Trillion Company

https://structuralgrowthdossier.substack.com/p/nvidia-nvda-deep-dive-still-on-track

Petey Kay's avatar

We will be on a Philadelphia-Reykjavik flight.

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