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Most officials want another hike. Markets bet December
September minutes show most officials expect another rate increase before year-end, with no date named, as Governor Waller said Thursday that extra hikes need not come at back-to-back meetings.
Year-end hike view: The minutes said most participants judged that another increase in the target range “would likely be appropriate by year end,” while stressing that each meeting stays open to the data.
Unanimous quarter point: Officials voted as one to lift the benchmark a quarter point, to a 3.75%–4% range, the first increase in three years.
October looks unlikely: Futures price a hold at the Oct. 28–29 meeting and a rise in December. Vice Chair Jefferson said officials “will need to come to our own judgement, which may take more time.”
Waller timing window: In Istanbul, Waller said that if the data come in as expected he anticipates more hikes, and that they “do not need to come at consecutive meetings” but should arrive “in an acceptable period of time.”
A 55% surge, and it still is not TSMC’s best month
Taiwan Semiconductor posted September sales of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier, and a third quarter of about NT$1.49 trillion that cleared the analyst average.
Not a monthly record: September net revenue was NT$511.86 billion, or $16.03 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and down 0.6% from August. CNBC corrected an earlier claim that the month set a record.
Quarter beat views: Third-quarter revenue came to about NT$1.49 trillion, or $46.7 billion, up 51% and above the NT$1.46 trillion average, even as investors weigh debt and calls to slow the AI buildout.
Shares dipped first: The Taipei listing closed 1.35% lower ahead of the release. Earnings are due next week, after a September commitment to ASML’s High NA lithography tools.
Texas talk continues: The chipmaker is weighing a further Texas expansion after pledging $265 billion for an Arizona campus. North American customers were more than 75% of first-half sales.
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Samsung prints an $80 billion quarter. Shares still slip
Samsung on Thursday forecast third-quarter operating profit of 107.40 trillion won, or $80.2 billion, a 782% jump from a year earlier that still left the shares down 0.7%.
First past 100 trillion: Operating profit of 107.40 trillion won is the first time the company has cleared 100 trillion won in a quarter. Revenue is forecast near 195 trillion won, up almost 127%.
Still short of hopes: Josh Gilbert of eToro said Samsung has “delivered a record profit and still fallen short of expectations,” a sign of how demanding the AI memory trade has become.
Multiyear chip orders: Gilbert said buyers are signing multiyear supply deals, and that AI agents can use far more memory than a chatbot answering one question. Supply remains tight.
Prior quarter context: Second-quarter operating profit was a record 89.5 trillion won. Samsung partnered with Mistral AI in September, and a full division breakdown is due later this month.
Gas heat bills fall 9%. Oil heat jumps 21%
The EIA’s Tuesday winter outlook says households on natural gas and propane, about half the country, should spend less, while heating-oil and electric homes face higher bills.
Gas spending lower: Homes heated mainly by natural gas are forecast to spend 9% less than last winter. The West is the exception, up 7%, while other regions fall 10% to 15%.
Propane mostly down: Propane households are seen spending 3% less, in a range from a 10% drop to an 8% rise. The South is flat, the Midwest down 4%, and the Northeast down 15%.
Oil and power up: Heating oil is projected up 21%, with uncertainty of 15% to 35%. Electric homes are up 4%: West 9%, South and Midwest 3%, Northeast down 3%.
Weather can swing: National temperatures are forecast similar to last year, warmer in the Northeast and colder in the West. NOAA has flagged a strong El Niño that could move the forecast.
Amazon cut under 1,000 Stores jobs during Deal Days
Amazon is trimming a white-collar round of fewer than 1,000 roles, concentrated in the unit that runs its main shopping site, as October Prime Big Deal Days wrapped.
Stores unit first: A person familiar with the matter told Reuters the round covers fewer than 1,000 employees, concentrated in the division that runs the main e-commerce site.
Slack shows spread: Messages reviewed by Reuters and shared by employees pointed to customer service and selling-partner services, and possibly other units, in the US, India, and the UK.
After a larger wave: The trim follows roughly 30,000 job cuts that began last year and ran into January. Business Insider reported this round first.
Company and Bezos: A spokesperson said the change should “better enable us to deliver on our priorities.” Bezos told Fox Amazon overhired in the pandemic and rejected darker AI job calls.
Walmart drones are coming to Seattle and Denver
Walmart and Alphabet’s Wing will add drone delivery in the Seattle and Denver metros next year, part of a plan covering more than 270 stores and nearly 20 major markets.
Already in four markets: The partnership already reaches more than 3 million customers, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Houston, and Orlando. Wing announced the new metros on Monday.
Rain and winter routes: Seattle and Denver add Pacific Northwest rain and Colorado winters to the map. Wing’s Rivera said the pace shows how quickly households are adopting drone delivery.
Five-pound payload: Drones fly up to 60 mph and carry up to 5 pounds. Shoppers can order tens of thousands of items, including groceries, electronics, and over-the-counter drugs, for delivery in minutes.
Rivals also flying: Lowe’s started a Sept. 24 North Carolina Wing pilot, the first home-improvement retailer aboard. Amazon in August aimed Prime Air at nearly 500 US cities and towns by year-end.
Ram recalls 265,512 vans that can lose steering assist
Chrysler is recalling 265,512 Ram ProMaster cargo vans from the 2022–2026 model years after water can reach the electric power-steering harness and drop assist without warning.
Four model lines: The notice covers 44,391 Ram 1500s, 147,204 Ram 2500s, and 72,043 Ram 3500s from 2022–2026, plus 1,874 Ram 3500 EV vans from 2024–2026.
No warning given: Water can enter the electric power-steering wiring harness and damage it. Drivers may get no alert before assist fails, and NHTSA said that raises crash risk.
One crash known: Stellantis knows of one non-injury accident, Frank Matyok told The Detroit News. Dealers will inspect and, if needed, replace the harness and steering gear free.
Letters on Nov. 17: Interim owner notices are expected to mail Nov. 17. A second letter goes out once the final remedy is available.
As the economy is so hot a rate hike will reduce chance of inflation — Sr Bush again ?