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Dolores Adams's avatar

GET RID OF THE CHINESE YOUI CAN'T TRUST THEM. REMEMBER SWAWE;; AND HIS CHINESE

GIRLFRIEND?

Vitaly Kurdyumov's avatar

The CoreWeave item is the one I'd watch, more than the CEO search.

CoreWeave closed at $56.60 on Thursday, down 6.9% on the day and 26% over the month, about 70% below its $187 high. Wednesday's earnings bounce was gone in one session. That reaction makes sense once you see that Nvidia isn't only CoreWeave's supplier. It's part of how CoreWeave gets financed: a $6.3 billion agreement with CoreWeave, $3.3 billion of stakes in companies that finance AI infrastructure, and guarantees on data center leases for cloud partners. With a few smaller exposures, it adds up to roughly $14 billion.

For Nvidia that's small, less than one quarter of its free cash flow. For the neoclouds it's the backstop lenders lean on. CoreWeave had $10.6 billion of debt due within twelve months and $4.1 billion of cash at the end of September, and its CDS already trade around 1,194 basis points, somewhere between B and CCC. A leaderless Nvidia doesn't change Nvidia's own balance sheet. It changes how much lenders trust the implied support behind its customers.

So on Nov 17 I'd listen less for the revenue line and more for what the interim team says about vendor financing. If they pull back on it, the stress shows up at CoreWeave first, not at Nvidia.

Len's avatar

Humm this guy had two Feng Feng. Now that uncle Bernie has been found to have stashed millions in Chinese banks how many such delights did he have ????