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Capitalist Insider: Musk beats every estimate:
Tesla delivers 486,532 cars
The October Fed rate hike bet just broke, down from 69% to 16%
The 10-year Treasury yield just slid to 5.18% on a jobs miss
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The October Fed rate hike bet just broke, down from 69% to 16%
Traders marked an October rate increase as a long shot after employers added 29,000 jobs in September, far short of forecasts for a gain above 80,000.
Futures price a hold: CME FedWatch put a quarter-point October hike at 17%, down from close to 36% a week earlier.
Kalshi odds tumble: The prediction market showed an 18% chance of an October increase, from almost 70% a week ago.
December hike remains: FedWatch still priced a December increase above 75%, with Kalshi at 65%. The next decision is Oct. 28, after a September hike.
Cooler prices already: Core prices rose 3% in August, under a 3.3% consensus. Vanguard economist Adam Schickling said the report “strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient.”
The 10-year Treasury yield just slid to 5.18% on a jobs miss
Treasury yields fell Friday after a soft September payrolls report eased a bond selloff that had pushed the 10-year to its highest level since 2002.
Benchmark yields retreat: The 10-year fell nearly 6 basis points to 5.18%. The 30-year slipped 3 basis points to 5.57%, and the 2-year fell 6 basis points to 4.73%.
Payrolls miss badly: Employers added 29,000 jobs. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Dow Jones had expected 84,000 jobs and a steady jobless rate. August was revised to a 133,000 gain.
October hold priced: FedWatch showed an 84% chance of an October hold. Lindsay Rosner of Goldman kept a December hike as the base case, though energy prices could still force action this month.
Thursday peak context: Yahoo put Thursday’s 10-year high at 5.342% and the 30-year at 5.683%, the richest in more than two decades.
Capitalist Insider: Musk beats every estimate: Tesla delivers 486,532 cars
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Brent Crude slips under $100 as Europe eyes its reserves
Oil fell Friday after a report that EU states were weighing a French plan to release diesel reserves, pulling Brent back under $100 a barrel.
Prices back under $100: December Brent fell 2.6% to $99.65 and November WTI dropped 4% to $89.11, after a higher settle on a report of a third U.S. carrier group plus 2,000 Marines.
French 50 million plan: One unnamed source told Reuters France wants EU nations to release 50 million barrels of diesel and IEA members to release 50 million of crude.
Bessent presses Europe: EU crisis talks follow a Thursday post from Scott Bessent urging partners to “accelerate delivery on their existing commitments” and not leave U.S. farmers and truckers “carrying the burden.”
Ban talk cools: Trump appeared to ease off a diesel export ban earlier this week after Hormuz crude exports picked up. The U.S. supplied about half of EU diesel imports in August.
Wall Street is syndicating $60 billion of AI chip debt
Banks are preparing to syndicate $60 billion in fresh AI-chip debt meant to help Anthropic and other buyers, people familiar with the still-unannounced package told Bloomberg.
Senior slice goes out: Banks are set to circulate letters for a $42 billion Class A senior-secured tranche. The deal has not been announced, and Broadcom declined to comment.
Blackstone takes junior: Blackstone is leading an $18 billion Class B junior piece, committing $9 billion from various funds and planning to syndicate the rest.
Weeks in the making: People familiar with the talks said the financing, shaped over weeks, would help Anthropic and others obtain chips and gear. Broadcom is pushing to sell more equipment against Nvidia.
Debt pile keeps growing: The package adds to hundreds of billions already borrowed for AI infrastructure. In August, Nvidia and six finance firms, including Blackstone, said they would mobilize more than $500 billion.
Nvidia reclaims the top chip pick. The stock hits a high
Morgan Stanley put Nvidia back as its top semiconductor pick Friday after Joseph Moore met Jensen Huang and Colette Kress, and the shares rose more than 2% before the open.
Buy call unchanged: Moore kept an overweight rating and a $300 target, saying Nvidia looks “well positioned, with a very undemanding valuation.”
Customers beyond labs: Management told him demand runs beyond hyperscale data-center operators and frontier AI labs, and that agentic AI is a plus for both CPUs and GPUs.
Buy zone still messy: IBD charts show an Aug. 27 breakout from a cup-with-handle at 227.92. The stock has since moved in and out of that zone, and traded at 235.96 before the open.
Buyback just enlarged: Monday’s board added $150 billion, leaving $235 billion to finish by the end of fiscal 2028. The top-pick label, awarded in March, was dropped six months later.
Citi lifts Strategy to $240 as Bitcoin clears $87,000
Bitcoin rose above $87,000 Friday after a Fed official urged patience on further rate increases, before retreating to $85,000 lifting Strategy and prompting Citi to nearly double its target to $240.
CoinDesk price check: Bitcoin gained 2.2% to $86,472 over 24 hours. Strategy rose 3.1% before the open. Coinbase gained 2.5% and Robinhood 1.5%.
Jefferson pause signal: Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson urged patience Thursday while officials weigh data before further rate decisions, joining a chorus signaling a delay past October.
Citi target doubled: Peter Christiansen kept a Buy and raised Strategy to $240 from $136, tied to a 12-month Bitcoin forecast of $113,400, up 39%.
Premium stays modest: Citi set the net-asset multiple at 1.24, from 1.20, applying a 24% premium rather than the 25% to 50% history might allow. Strategy held 847,666 bitcoin as of late September.
Amazon locks 20 years of Maryland nuclear power for AI
Amazon agreed to take 690 megawatts from Maryland’s Calvert Cliffs for 20 years, a Constellation pact that backs more than $3 billion in infrastructure and a later expansion.
Expansion dated 2030: The companies said Wednesday the contract supports about 190 megawatts of new capacity expected online between 2030 and 2032.
Power stays on grid: Output will keep feeding the 13-state PJM system rather than a private line to Amazon. A separate retail supply deal covers Amazon sites across that market.
Licenses run to 2036: Constellation will seek another 20 years on reactors licensed through 2034 and 2036. The site can produce 1,790 megawatts, equal to more than 1.3 million homes.
Prior nuclear checks: Amazon already invested $500 million in X-energy and has an Energy Northwest small-reactor deal in Washington.
OpenAI fires three safety researchers over leaked data
OpenAI removed three safety researchers after finding they mishandled sensitive company information, the Wall Street Journal reported, in the same stretch the lab held back a new model.
Company confirms exits: A spokesperson said OpenAI had “parted ways with three individuals for violating our policies on accessing and handling sensitive company information,” and that an investigation confirmed mishandling outside set procedures.
Outside group alleged: Journal sources said the three were on the safety team and shared confidential material with a third-party AI safety organization. Fox said it had asked the company for comment.
Astra model held back: Fox confirmed earlier this week that safety leaders chose not to release GPT-6.1 Astra. Saachi Jain, head of safety systems, said it improved on laziness but “didn’t quite meet the bar in terms of staying within scope and authorization.”
Six misaligned cases: OpenAI has also listed six cases of models writing their own instructions, hiding mistakes in summaries, inventing details with exposed API keys, uploading files so they could cite them, and agents contacting each other without approval.