Trump to “Make American Shipyards Great Again” to challenge China's dominance

America has just eight active shipyards China has over three hundred

Hello Capitalists,

Here is everything you should be following today:

• Trump’s vows to “Make Ship Building Great Again” with bold deals

• Seeks to challenge China’s 53% monopoly on building ships

• Betting market odds soar for the new Fed Chair

• Space X valuation makes Google a fortune

• Bessent touts a $1-2000 per household retroactive tax return

• iRobot vacuum files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

Today’s markets + assets:

• 🔴 DOW: 48325.27 (⬇️ 0.27%)

• 🔴 S&P: 6810.29 (⬇️ 0.25%)

• 🔴 NASDAQ: 23069.55 (⬇️ 0.54%)

• ⚠️✅CBOE VIX Volatility Index: 16.77 (⬆️ 6.61%)

• ✅ Gold: $4335.50 (⬆️ 0.14%)

• ✅ Silver: $63.58 (⬆️ 2.53%)

• 🔴 Bitcoin: $85,660 (⬇️ 4.52%)

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Trump vows shipbuilding revival against China’s high seas dominance

President Donald Trump is pushing to revive America’s long-dormant shipbuilding industry through a “Make American Shipyards Great Again” initiative, relying heavily on foreign expertise to challenge China’s overwhelming global dominance, which controls over half the market with massive subsidies.

• China’s Massive Dominance: China boasts over 300 shipyards and 232 times the U.S. capacity, holding 53% of global market share and 75% of 2025 new orders, fueled by heavy government subsidies.

• U.S. Industry Challenges: America has just eight active shipyards, outdated infrastructure, severe workforce shortages, and minimal participation in key sectors like LNG tankers.

• South Korean Partnership Key: Hanwha Group’s $350 billion deal includes acquiring and expanding Philly Shipyard, with plans for LNG carriers, tankers, and workforce training via rotations to Korea.

• International Collaborations Growing: Deals involving Italian-owned Fincantieri for naval vessels as well as Finnish partnerships for icebreakers are also planned to bolster U.S. capacity and security.

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Kevin Warsh surges in betting odds to be new Fed Chair

Prediction markets are betting big on a tight race for Federal Reserve chair, with Kevin Warsh’s odds soaring 27 points to 42% on Kalshi this week, as President Trump narrows his top picks to Warsh and loyal adviser Kevin Hassett amid rising affordability pressures.

• Hassett Leads Markets: Kevin Hassett holds a 50% chance on Kalshi despite a recent 20-point drop, reflecting his role as Trump’s top economic defender and National Economic Council director.

• Trump Praises Duo: President Trump added to the speculation between the contenders saying that “the two Kevins are great,” confirming Hassett and Warsh as leading candidates to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026.

• Warsh’s Credentials Shine: Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, once the youngest board member and a past Trump contender, brings deep central banking experience from his Morgan Stanley background.

• Market Volume Soars: Over $10.2 million has been wagered on Kalshi’s Fed chair market, underscoring intense trader interest in Trump’s impending decision on the powerful central bank post.

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SpaceX surge boosts Alphabet’s holdings by Billions

Alphabet Inc. stands to book another multibillion-dollar unrealized gain after a new tender offer catapulted Elon Musk’s SpaceX to an eye-popping $800 billion valuation — more than doubling its worth from earlier this year and padding the Google parent’s books.

• Historic 2015 Investment: Alphabet invested in SpaceX alongside Fidelity in a $1 billion round, securing roughly a 10% combined stake that has appreciated dramatically over time.

• Latest Valuation Jump: The recent insider tender offer priced SpaceX shares at $421 each, pushing the company’s overall valuation to approximately $800 billion.

• Previous Paper Windfall: Earlier in 2025, a prior tender valuing SpaceX at $350 billion triggered an $8 billion unrealized gain for Alphabet, helping beat Wall Street earnings estimates.

• Earnings Impact Ahead: Investors will watch Alphabet’s next quarterly report for this new non-cash boost from revaluing non-marketable equity securities like its SpaceX holding.

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Bessent hypes 2025 retroactive tax returns

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Sunday that American taxpayers can expect “very large” refunds early next year — potentially $1,000 to $2,000 per household — thanks to retroactive tax cuts in the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

• Retroactive Cuts Drive Refunds: The OBBBA’s provisions apply back to 2025 earnings, but withholding tables remained unchanged after the bill’s July passage, leading to over-withheld taxes totaling $100-150 billion.

• Extends 2017 Tax Relief: The act permanently extends lower rates and higher standard deductions from Trump’s 2017 cuts, preventing a scheduled tax hike that would have hit in 2026.

• Future Paycheck Boost Ahead: Once taxpayers adjust withholding in 2026, Bessent predicts higher take-home pay and a “very good year” economically.

• Trump’s Bold Promise Fulfilled: President Trump has touted this as the “largest tax refund season ever,” amid efforts to ease affordability concerns like rising costs for groceries and housing.

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Roomba maker iROBOT goes bankrupt, to be bought by Chinese supplier

iRobot, the pioneering U.S. company behind the iconic Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday as fierce competition from low-cost Chinese rivals, crippling new tariffs, and the fallout from a collapsed Amazon acquisition deal pushed it to the brink, paving the way for its primary manufacturer to take full control.

• Chinese Manufacturer Acquires Control: Shenzhen-based Picea Robotics will own 100% of iRobot’s equity post-restructuring, canceling over $260 million in debts while taking the company private.

• Tariffs Hammer Costs: New U.S. tariffs, including a 46% levy on imports from Vietnam, added $23 million in expenses this year alone, exacerbating planning challenges amid manufacturing reliance overseas.

• Amazon Deal Fallout Lingers: The failed $1.7 billion acquisition by Amazon in 2024, blocked by regulators, left iRobot struggling with debt and delayed payments to suppliers like Picea.

• Operations Remain Unaffected: The pre-packaged bankruptcy ensures no disruptions to customer apps, product support, supply chains, or payments to most creditors and vendors, with 274 employees retained.

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