Trump Economy Primed For Significant Rebound

Those who ignore the short-term panic and volatility in the markets currently, remaining fixated with a long-term perspective, stand to gain the most as a testament to their resilience and fortitude.

By Paul Ingrassia

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America’s economy stands to gain considerably in the second and especially third quarters of the year, as the first term volatility begins to dwindle with the wind-down of the Iran war and as the trillions of investments already committed to the US economy since the start of Trump’s second term finally start to mature. Thus far, so much of the last year plus was aimed at stabilizing an economy that had been through the ringer many times over under Biden’s four ignominious years of holding court in Washington. Dubbed the “autopen administration,” the Biden years are best seen as what the old European scholastics would call an interregnum in the times of warring popes and antipopes – a period of widespread illegitimacy, defined by the government forfeiting its promise to the American people.

In this period, growth stalled, while America’s borders were swung wide open to the world. Sensible immigration policy selecting for merit and cultural alignment was harshly swept aside for a policy of reckless abandonment, where anyone, but especially the worst criminals, was given the opportunity to come to American shores, and likely defraud hardworking taxpayers of billions of dollars in the process. Globalization, which had been almost completely discredited under President Trump’s first administration, was for a temporary moment given a renewed lease of life. Rather than invest in American industry, including in burgeoning, high-growth sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and Artificial Intelligence, the Biden regime accelerated the Obama-era penchant for alienating business opportunities through shutting down factories and giving adverse competitors like China, India, and Mexico first dibs on everything from semiconductors to energy harvesting. On the domestic front, so much attention was placed on Environmental Social Governance (or “ESG”) in both the corporate and government sectors. In actual practice, this meant sidelining essential industries like oil and gas, necessary for maintaining America’s global competitive edge, while foolishly offering preferential treatment to EVs (but, of course, excluding the best company, bar none, in that industry) and prioritizing “alternative” energies, like solar and wind.

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On the hiring front, social programs like affirmative action, Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion, and rank overt discrimination against white men in educating, hiring and career-advancing practices went into overdrive, penetrating elite institutions from the Ivy League to the federal government, enclothing them in ridiculous, suicidal dogmas whose effect was to demoralize high achievers and create artificial barriers to block America’s best and brightest from jumpstarting their careers on the right foot. In the aggregate, these developments, a society-wide hypnosis, supported by so much of the political elite that forced Trump into the wilderness, were aside from everything else extraordinarily hostile to growth and innovation.

This is the chief reason why so much of the table-setting on the policy front of the first part of the second Trump administration was geared towards stabilization: so much went wrong in the preceding four years that some time was needed to implement policies which would correct the course. This policy of stabilization was perhaps most recognizably exemplified by the Liberation Day tariffs. These tariffs stood as a critical piece of a larger recalibration scheme of the overall US economy aimed at now permanently relegating globalism and its discontents to history’s ashbin. The philosophy of globalization would be replaced with a muscular economic nationalism based on rebuilding America’s economic brand, which would have the effect of rerouting trillions back into the domestic economy through tariffs, strategic dealmaking, and much wiser all-around policy choices.

The table-setting thus is poised to yield significant dividends – not just for the next several months, but continuously for many years ahead. What the second Trump administration signifies, on the economic front, is the bricklaying for an economic renaissance that will ignite the second half of the twenty first century. On pure economic terms, the twenty-first century has gotten off to a pretty rough start relative to the twentieth, which in the post-war years was defined by consistent high growth and expansion, particularly during the 1950s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s. The twenty-first century, by sharp contrast, has witnessed meager growth in absolute terms, whether measured by overall Gross Domestic Product, real wages, or the stock market returns. The period from 2000-2013, capturing Clinton, Bush, and Obama’s presidencies, was defined by zero overall growth in the S&P 500. This sclerosis of the financial markets was caused by setbacks resulting from the dotcom and thereafter subprime mortgage crises, and the protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan under George Bush, accounting for this economic malaise that started the new millennium.

Through this lens, it can be said that the twenty-first century has not really started – or it has not yet had the chance to unleash its potential – until now. While the S&P would rebound in the 2010s, especially in the second half of that decade fueled by the President’s tax cuts and deregulation policies, the vehicle behind that growth – real, authentic, meaningful innovation – has only started to show itself in the second half of the 2020s with the President’s re-election, and the rekindled opportunities for sustained growth that came with it. Under Obama, and later, Biden, innovation, and all the great things that entails – from new technologies that make work more efficient to breakthrough drugs that lengthen lifespans to more high-skilled jobs that in the net contribute to overall economic growth – took a backseat to woke social theories. The latter was characterized by a philosophy that drove such destructive, anti-growth programs such as DEI, and would become manifest in civilization-denying social movements such as the Black Lives Matter protests of the summer of 2020 and the Antifa resistance movement that continues through the present day.

The Obama years really amounted to a three-term presidency, interspersed across two presidential administrations and part of a sixteen-year period from 2009-2025, in which growth, innovation, and the health of society was dramatically subordinated to a period of constant, radical social upheaval, typified by subversive policies that eroded the moral and cultural fiber of American identity. Not only was this catastrophic from the standpoint of civilizational health and social cohesion, but also decisively proved a distraction from the actual, core policies that create jobs and sustainable growth over the long term. In a word, Obama was the highpoint of American decadence, where the government in power even designed policies that actively harmed the American people, including the pocketbooks of working Americans most of all.

The Trump era stands as the ultimate juxtaposition and indictment of that period of malaise. Whereas the technology hegemons of Obama were more focused on pushing woke programs and censoring political opponents, under Trump the technology innovators have shifted focus to growth and competition, the engines behind American capitalism. Capitalism no longer is a dirty word either. Additionally, the market conditions have changed sufficiently where no longer a handful of behemoths dominate an otherwise exclusive market. The market is much more decentralized today than it was ten years ago, when it was concentrated in the hands of a few woke behemoths that supported much of the political infrastructure put into motion under Obama. Under Trump, that has changed. Not only is the scope of technology under this current President so broad – with new AI startups, for instance, ostensibly emerging by the day, creating all sorts of different applications for this constantly-evolving technology, but the industry itself is significantly more far-reaching. Innovation is not strictly limited to AI, either, as it was to the sphere of social media in the previous era. AI is just the tip of the spear. Advances run the gauntlet, from healthcare and the emergence of biologics to quantum computing and its vast potential to remake entire industries to robotics and its multifaceted reach on everything from warfare to construction, to space technology replete with the limitless opportunities any new frontier presents.

This in a nutshell showcases what is at the heart of the economic and innovation revolution made possible by the second Trump administration. Those who ignore the short-term panic and volatility in the markets currently, remaining fixated with a long-term (though not too long-term, as the fruits should start blossoming soon!) perspective, stand to gain the most as a testament to their resilience and fortitude. Because the opportunity today is one that does not come around that often historically; the tremendous economic might stands as a generational one that is testimony to American innovation and the rebirth of an American dream, made possible by Donald Trump and his administration which has architected policy that finally has allowed the economy to breath, unrestrained by bureaucracy and subversion, and once again, show the rest of the world why America is uniquely positioned to dominate this century much as it did the last one.

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