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Capitalist Insider: The $300B hole Amazon, Oracle and Microsoft still owe
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Iran recycled June’s deal. Now it’s a 7-day clock
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz can reopen in 7 days and nuclear talks can restart if the U.S. meets conditions already in June’s collapsed memorandum.
Islamabad terms get recycled: Araghchi said the conditions match the Islamabad MOU Trump signed in June. That ceasefire collapsed in early July, and the administration has said it will not return to those terms.
Oil slips on talks: Brent November futures fell 1% to $105.56 and WTI fell 1.8% to $92.94. Vessel transits through Hormuz, normally about a fifth of global oil, fell to 9.
Houthis hit Saudi targets: Houthis fired dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi targets Friday; authorities intercepted 6 ballistic missiles. Pezeshkian said the Houthis “are responsible for their own actions.”
Senate rejects war pullout: The Senate voted 49-50 Thursday against a concurrent War Powers measure directing Trump to pull U.S. forces from Iran. Tillis, Collins, Murkowski, and Paul voted yes; Fetterman was the lone Democrat no.
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Greer: China trade subset hits Monday. Chips stay out
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday the United States and China agreed on a subset of non-sensitive goods for more favorable terms, with more details due Monday.
Preferential carve-out takes shape: Greer told Squawk Box the subset includes U.S. agricultural products and medical devices plus Chinese consumer goods, meant to stay insulated if either side later adds tariffs.
Export controls stay parked: Board of Trade talks cover “pure trade issues,” Greer said, with national-security export controls “off the table.” He did not name products, tariff changes, or start dates.
U.S. orders surprise jump: China Beige Book’s U.S. orders gauge at 1,295 firms rose to 13 in September from −12 a year earlier and 3 in August. The trade truce was extended two months to January.
Taiwan wording, weapons wait: Xinhua said Xi urged the U.S. to “adhere to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence.” A $14 billion weapons package remains delayed; Taiwan’s foreign ministry denounced the remarks.
The 10-year just hit 5.183%, highest since 2007
The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 5.183% on Friday after Thursday’s highest print since June 2007, as hawkish Fed talk and a global bond selloff kept pressure on U.S. debt.
Long bond revisits 2004: The 30-year yield rose more than 1 basis point Friday to 5.476% after levels not seen since 2004. The 2-year was up less than 1 basis point at 4.901%.
Rapid rises precede breaks: John Roque of 22V Research said 16 rapid 10-year advances since 1970 each preceded a disruption, from the 1987 crash to Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.
October hike odds at 66%: Traders priced a 66% chance of an October increase after Fed Governor Michael Barr said Wednesday that “further policy adjustments” can be expected.
Asia spreads near extremes: Malaysia’s 10-year discount to Treasuries widened to 125 basis points, the most since 2007, while Thailand’s gap reached 290 basis points and Indonesia’s spread narrowed to 188.
The bond selloff just pushed 30-year mortgages to 7.45%
The average 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 7.45% Thursday as Treasury yields surged, while Freddie Mac’s weekly survey rose to 7.03%, the first reading above 7% since January 2025.
Daily print jumps 19 bp: Mortgage News Daily’s Thursday survey hit 7.45%, up 19 basis points from 7.26%, after an afternoon re-run as the 10-year kept climbing.
Freddie weekly crosses 7%: Freddie Mac said the 30-year averaged 7.03% from 6.95%, and the 15-year climbed to 6.42% from 6.26%. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.3%.
Seven percent broke Sept. 10: Mortgage News Daily’s Matthew Graham said daily 7% first broke Sept. 10 after inflation reports. The 30-year had sunk as low as 5.99% at the end of February.
Ten-year keeps climbing: Realtor.com’s Anthony Smith said the 10-year surged 15 basis points Wednesday to 5.11%, a 19-year high, and hovered around 5.1% Thursday afternoon.
Trump flagged the weak yen. It just jumped
The yen rose about 1% against the dollar, its best day in two weeks, after Japan’s finance minister said President Trump raised the currency’s weakness with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Leaders called yen problematic: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Trump “expressed his concern” in New York on Tuesday; Takaichi told him an undervalued yen was “problematic.”
Bessent stays closely looped: Katayama said she and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will keep communicating closely on foreign exchange after the Trump-Takaichi meeting.
Record summer yen-buying: Japan and the U.S. staged their first coordinated yen-buying since 1998 after the currency weakened beyond 160; Tokyo spent a record ¥15.4 trillion ($97.4 billion) through Aug. 26.
Hike has not stuck: The Bank of Japan last week raised rates to a 31-year high, and Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at more tightening this year.
Warsh’s 127-day overhaul still points to more hikes
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, 127 days in, has dropped traditional forward guidance and is leaning on broad financial conditions, a framework that still leaves additional rate increases on the table.
Neutral scale gets dismissed: Warsh called the old accommodative-neutral-restrictive framework “useful academically” but said it had no bearing on last week’s unanimous quarter-point hike, the first since 2023.
Markets still price tightening: The 2-year yield sat nearly a full percentage point above the funds rate Wednesday, the widest since 2023. This report put October hike odds at 70%, with as many as two more through March.
Inflation still far off: July PCE inflation ran at 3.7% and has sat above the 2% target for more than 5½ years. Warsh has not yet cut the balance sheet; five task forces report early next year.
Bank thresholds may rise: Barron’s, citing Reuters, said the Fed is preparing a proposal by year’s end to raise the asset levels that trigger stricter oversight of large U.S. banks.
No power, still paying: Oracle’s Jupiter problem
Oracle sent a force majeure notice on its 2.25 GW New Mexico Project Jupiter campus, removed a key partner, and still faces payment risk after power and permitting delays.
OpenAI campus, little wiggle: The Wall Street Journal said Oracle last year made aggressive financial commitments to lease the Doña Ana County campus as part of a blitz of OpenAI compute deals, leaving little room to maneuver.
Partner pulled amid protests: Oracle removed a key partner and faces local resistance. Protesters opposed to the project gathered in Santa Fe in August.
Guarantees tested years early: Residual-value guarantees common to data-center structures are being tested in reverse about 5 years earlier than expected after the permitting delay, ZeroHedge reported.
Payment risk stays put: The force majeure advised the top developer it would be relieved of obligations because the site cannot power up, but the payment risk still sits with Oracle, not investors.
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We covered Oracle’s risky financing bets back in December of 2025:
AI shopping agents can use your card. Banks flinch
A bank group including Bank of America and Capital One warned that AI shopping agents can outrun consumer protections, while a security founder said machine-speed swarms already beat human monitoring.
Agents may enter cards: The report, also backed by NatWest, ASB Bank, and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said agents may request card details or steer shoppers toward payment methods with weaker protections.
John Lewis traffic jumps: British retailer John Lewis said searches from AI agents rose from 0.3% last year to 2.5% this year. Banks want disclosure when an agent is in a transaction.
Swarms outrun human monitors: Polygraf AI founder Yagub Rahimov called a swarm a “digital workforce” of agents that coordinate. “You cannot secure machine-speed activity with human-speed monitoring,” he said.
Iran has to be told —- time is up !! No more delays period !! And take over Hormuz now !!
I would imagine Trump already knows what Iran will do before they do. He will see right through their subterfuge and lies.