“Alright, pay attention because this is how legends are made.”
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Hot takes from the C-Suite corner office,
not financial advice!
Six tapes. Same rules as always. Numbers from the source. No sermons.
No participation trophies. No crying on the trading floor.
Waller’s pause lasted one day, then jobs murdered $80,000 bitcoin
Adobe picked the enterprise guy and the Photoshop shop walked
Rice just printed its biggest year since 2003 while wheat blinked
Tesla’s Cybercab debut was a private shrug. Then NHTSA walked in
Together with NEXT THING TECHNOLOGIES
Bessent’s boom is real and the press is still asleep
Kudlow just replayed the G20 tape with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and the wires still won’t run it. Bessent said the president’s policies laid the groundwork: regulatory certainty, almost 14 million barrels of oil a day, record natural-gas and LNG exports, and permanent 100% bonus depreciation that can write off a bunch of costs in year one. Non-financial productivity is running 3.1% a year for two years “nothing like it since the 1990s.”
Winners? Energy exporters sitting on almost 14 million barrels a day, data-center builders expensing the building on day one, and builders actually pouring the concrete.
Losers? Every editor still selling recession fan fiction while ISM manufacturing prints eight straight up months and services run fifteen. The doomsday desk just got lapped.
Next? Watch whether 3.1% productivity and roughly $300 billion in refunds show up in GDP. Bonus depreciation does not stay a secret once the capex hits.
This is the cycle the press refuses to count. Tax-free tips, tax-free overtime, data centers that generate their own power and water and then cut the local property bill. You don’t have to like Bessent. You do have to read a productivity print we haven’t seen since the 1990s. The boom is running. The coverage isn’t.
Odds surge on Tesla merging with SpaceX before 2028
The odds of Tesla merging with SpaceX before 2028 have surged according to the latest data from Kalshi.
Elon’s Mega Corp: Elon Musk, fresh off the back of the SpaceX IPO has been rumored to be debating the move.
A Pattern Emerging: Prior to the SpaceX IPO several of Musk’s ventures were brought in under the SpaceX umbrella. This included the satellite internet division Starlink and the xAI division which runs the AI model Grok.
Do you think Tesla will be acquired by SpaceX?
Get $25 in credit on Kalshi after you sign up using our code “brawl” or by using our link.
Waller’s pause lasted one day, then jobs murdered $80,000 Bitcoin
Bitcoin tagged $82,000 Friday morning, about $700 shy of the $83,000 ceiling that’s capped it since February, then August payrolls sent it back under $80,000. Employers added 162,000 jobs, nearly triple the estimate, June and July got revised up 55,000, and unemployment sat at 4.1%. Waller gave the debasement crowd one night. The dollar and yields took it back by lunch.
Winners? Anyone short Thursday’s melt-up. Two-year yields, the dollar, and Fed hawks just got a 162,000-job permission slip heading into September 16’s Fed Announcement.
Losers? The August 19 Bessent-buyback trade: Bitcoin, Gold, Strategy’s 18% rip, Robinhood’s 16% rip, Coinbase’s 10% pop, and the longs who bought Waller’s Lennon line.
Next? September 11 CPI decides if “give disinflation a chance” still has a pulse. Until then $80,000 is a ceiling, not a floor.
Thursday wasn’t a Bitcoin renaissance. It was a one-day dollar dump after Waller cut hike odds from 63% to 52% and juiced SpaceX 6.2% and Tesla 5.4% for nearly $200 billion of combined cap. Friday’s 162,000 print put the hike back on the table and tagged Bitcoin as low as $79,197. Debasement trades die when labor refuses to cooperate.
Oura’s S-1 unmasks a $1.21 billion health tollbooth
Oura kicked the S-1 into daylight on September 3. Revenue hit $1.21 billion in the nine months ended June 30, up 74% from $697.6 million, and profit jumped to $60.8 million from $1.6 million. Five million paid members, rings at $349 to $499, then $5.99 a month or $69.99 a year. Membership gross margin: 89%. This is a health-data tollbooth with a jewelry store attached.
Winners? Fidelity’s October 2025 $11 billion mark and the banks printing OURA, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Allen & Co., Jefferies, if they clear Bloomberg’s $16 billion, $3 billion-raise tape.
Losers? One-and-done fitness bands with no 85% twelve-month retention and no $240.5 million subscription stack growing 121%. Cheap hardware just met a real P&L.
Next? Nasdaq has OURA as soon as this month. Street will pay for 5 million members and 55% overall gross margin, then haircut the $924.3 million deemed-dividend optics.
I called wearable AI the next trillion-dollar moat in “Apple’s lawsuit screams AI hardware is the future.” This filing is that call in a ring.
Hardware is still $974 million. Membership is the weapon. Defense Department money is in the mix. A $60.8 million profit print is real. So is the accounting scar from buying back $1.09 billion of preferred. Don’t confuse the two.
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Adobe picked the enterprise guy and the Photoshop shop walked
Adobe named Anil Chakravarthy CEO effective December 1 and the tape spat it out. Shares slipped about 3% premarket, then 6% to 7% Friday. Shantanu Narayen slides to executive chair after 18 years. Same night David Wadhwani, who ran Creative Cloud (roughly three-quarters of revenue,) posted his resignation. Jefferies’ Brent Thill said Wadhwani was “the rational choice” and flagged more departures.
Winners? Canva, Figma, and the AI slideshow crowd already eating Photoshop lunch. Chakravarthy’s Digital Experience shop just inherited a throne it doesn’t own.
Losers? ADBE holders watching an 18% 2026 slide and a creative franchise that just lost its general on promotion day. Succession risk is now a P&L line.
Next? September 10 earnings. If “agentic software” talk doesn’t come with numbers, this handle keeps sliding while the board hunts more bodies.
This is not a promotion. It’s a confession the growth story now lives in enterprise agents, not Creative Cloud seats. Wadhwani ran the cash engine and walked the same day. You don’t lose the heir to 75% of sales and call it orderly. Street will mark Adobe like a melting tollbooth until December 1 proves otherwise. A six-and-a-half-month search produced a surprise. The tape already graded it.
Rice just printed its biggest year since 2003 while wheat blinked
Chicago rice futures are up more than 50% this year and, if the tape holds through December, that’s the largest annual gain since 2003. Near two-year highs. Thai benchmark prices have advanced six weeks straight. El Niño is intensifying, India’s monsoon is running 13% below normal, and diesel-fertilizer shocks out of Hormuz and Ukraine are squeezing the grain that feeds half the planet. Wheat dumped on Black Sea peace talk. Rice ignored it.
Winners? Long rice, Gulf fertilizer, and exporters who can still ship. Inventories matter when U.S. crop conditions are weaker year over year and Asia dominates output.
Losers? Net importers and lower-income Asia plus sub-Saharan Africa. BMI flags Thailand and Indonesia on dry-planting risk. Food inflation hits people who already spend the check on calories.
Next? El Niño into the fourth quarter tags the next Asian crop. Barclays and JPMorgan already flagged 2027 food-supply risk. Wheat’s peace bounce is not a rice pass.
In “The Iran deal and the Space X IPO, thats all that anyone cares about today” I said the Hormuz premium vaporized temporarily while the blockade still strangled exports. Say hello to the strangling.
That call held. Diesel and fertilizer never fully reset, then weather piled on. Diplomats can talk wheat off a ledge. They don’t plant monsoons. Rice feeds billions. Price is the rationing device.
Tesla’s Cybercab debut was a private shrug. Then NHTSA walked in
Wall Street paid 5.4% Thursday for a robotaxi coronation. Friday it got a closed-door Austin party, no livestream, no Elon, and a 6% slap. Cybercab is real: bronze two-seater, butterfly doors, no wheel, no pedals, paid rides inside a geofence through the Robotaxi app. Production started in April. Same day NHTSA opened an audit query on how Tesla self-certified a car missing the hardware the rulebook still assumes.
Winners? Waymo, which already owns the U.S. robotaxi lead, and anyone who faded the 5.4% pre-event pop. Incumbents still have scale, maps, and the regulator’s comfort.
Losers? Thursday’s high-beta crowd and anyone who priced a national taxi monopoly off 45 registered Cybercabs and a federal clipboard covering about 1,000 units.
Next? Pricing, production cadence, and exemptions stay blank. RBC kept the Buy and called disclosure thin. Wells Fargo headlined the launch “underwhelms” and flagged routing errors.
This is not a thesis funeral. In “Elon’s Trillion-dollar rocket ride” I said buy the Musk dip. Friday was that dip.
Austin is also the punchline of “California gifts its Fortune 500 crown to Texas while plotting self-destruction” the taxi launched where the capital of tech has already moved.
Miles still have to earn the multiple. A geofence and an audit are not a network.
WE HAVE NO PRESS!! THE MEDIA TRIPPED OVER ITSELF LONG LONG AGO IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO SANITIZED AND WALLPAPER THE PATHETIC MANCHURIAN MULATTO & FELL SO FAR AND SO DEEPLY SOUTH THAT THERE IS NO RECOVERY!! TEMPORARILY I WOULD TRUST MEN AS BESSENT AS SENATOR KENNEDY OF LOUISIANA < JOSH HOWLEY, CHIP ROY TO PROVIDE DAILY REPORTS SUPPORTED BY --YES _ OUR GOVERNMENT (TEMPORARILY) - SO THAT WE CAN IGNORE, TURN OUR BACKS ON & TELEVISIONS OFF TO THE BIG TECH BOGUS FRAUD MEDIA & THEIR ACTOR NEWSCASTERS -- ENOUGH OF CNN AND THE LIKE